Odds on championship: 200-1. Odds on relegation: 90-1
Manager: Martin O'Neill (since August 2006). Odds on first out the job: 21-1
Last season: 6th, 60 points; FA Cup third round; Carling Cup third round
Ins: Steve Sidwell (Chelsea, £5m), Curtis Davies (West Brom, £6m, from loan), Brad Friedel (Blackburn, £2m), Brad Guzan (Chivas USA, £650k), Nicky Shorey (Reading, £3.5m), Luke Young (Middlesbrough, £5.5m), Carlos Cuellar (Rangers, £7.8m, subject to medical).
Outs: Luke Moore (West Brom, £3.5m), Thomas Sorensen (released), Patrik Berger (Sparta Prague, free), Olof Mellberg (Juventus, free).
In 2006, Aston Villa finished 16th, leading eventually to Martin O'Neill's appointment that August. A year later, they finished 11th - up five places. This year, they finished sixth - up five places. This season, they will not move up five places. Could they move up one or even two?
Last week, even hanging on to what they achieved last year looked difficult, due to the shortage of incoming players and the heavy dragging weight on morale of the Gareth Barry saga. If you think the rest of us have had it bad having to wade through on-off, on-off headlines, imagine being a Villa fan.
Steve Sidwell is damaged goods after his year at Stamford Bridge. Brad Friedel is a fine goalkeeper and a necessary replacement for Scott Carson, but is 37. Curtis Davies was a Villa player anyway. All the while, the threat of losing Barry, the club's outstanding player, nagged away.
The start of the season is awkward, with home games against Manchester City and then Liverpool at the end of the month; in between is a match at Stoke, but the second away fixture is at Spurs.
The late arrivals of Luke Young and Nicky Shorey don't make everything better. Nor will Carlos Cuellar's signing from Rangers. But O'Neill's reputation suggests he should be able to bring the best out of the English pair.
Olof Mellberg will be missed, after seven years' fine service. Villa have not yet lost anyone else who contributed significantly to last season, though, and it is increasingly likely that Gareth Barry is going nowhere. If that proves the case, then there is reasonable hope that rather than sulking - which will get him nowhere - the midfielder will instead work harder.
Carson proved a weak link and provided Brad Friedel can maintain the form he showed at Blackburn then the defence will be reassured. If Young, Shorey and Cuellar settle in quickly then a back line that let in 51 goals last season should be less porous.
Villa's success was based on their attack and that remains intact. Ashley Young, John Carew and Gabriel Agbonlahor form an excellent trident and the two English members are still in the early days of their careers. They will surely improve, while Carew, 29 in September, is not over the hill.
Villa could look outclassed at times - their games against Manchester United last season are best forgotten - but they took 10 points off the sides above them (including inflicting a near fatal blow on Jose Mourinho), with draws away to Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool and Everton.
The gap between fifth and fourth was 11 points last season, with Villa a further five points back and I do not expect Villa to close the overall gap - but they can narrow it. O'Neill will have faith that he can improve on sixth and also make an impression on at least one of the cups. It won't be easy, but Villa are the pick of the bunch.
Philip Cornwall