Odds on championship: 200-1. Odds on relegation: 45-1
Manager: David Moyes (since March 2002). Odds on first out the job: 6-1
Last season: 5th, 65 points; UEFA Cup last 16; FA Cup third round; Carling Cup semi-finals
Ins: None.
Outs: Andy Johnson (Fulham, £10.5m), Lee Carsley (Birmingham City, free), Stefan Wessels (VfL Osnabruck, free).
Of the recent challengers to the Big Four, it's between Everton and Tottenham as to who has come closest. Spurs slipped out of fourth on the last day in 2006, but have actually won a trophy. Everton actually finished fourth in 2005, albeit with four points fewer than they managed last season.
It's slightly depressing, then, that Everton are unable to complete their summer spending before this week. Or even begin it.
Depressing, too, that Alan Smith is part of the package David Moyes is lining up to try to lift his team back to where they finished in 2005. A sharp contrast to last season and the signing of Yakubu, who had such a fantastic first season.
Last term was important because the yo-yoing that had afflicted Moyes' early years at the club was ended. Seventh to seventeenth and fourth to 11th were followed by sixth to fifth. They were fourth at the end of February, albeit ahead of opponents (Liverpool) with a game in hand.
The difficulty is that by the end of the season the gap ahead of them had grown to 11 points. The squad was too thin - and without significant improvements it is hard to see how that can be overcome this season, unless Everton can pick up more points in their head-to-head games with the Big Four. They earned just one point - at Chelsea - in eight games against the sides that finished ahead of them.
There was misfortune - notably the home game with Liverpool - but that record is, like the failure to add to the squad, one stumbling block to progress. And there are more.
The Big Four are getting further away from, not closer to, the pack. In 2005, Manchester United came third with a point fewer than Liverpool managed in finishing fourth last season.
Everton's neighbours have been torn up by the dispute between the owners and the tensions between the manager and the chief executive; there is a continued threat to the plans for a new Anfield. But there is no peace at Goodison, either, with the split between board and many fans over the proposed move to Kirkby. Worse for the club is that extra investment seems to hinge on the move going through, but the government have just called in the planning decision for further consultation.
Nor has Moyes himself signed a new deal, despite his many protestations that he is going nowhere. It adds to the uncertainty and prospective signings Wagner Love and Stephane M'Bia must wonder what is going on, too.
The injuries that prevented Tim Cahill playing after late March and restricted Mikel Arteta's appearances were significant; but unless the squad suffer no injuries whatsoever, then any enforced absences will be a problem given the size of the squad.
Back on the pitch, Moyes must look over his shoulder. Villa and Spurs, especially, are eager to challenge for fifth with squads that have been improved, holding on to what they have certainly can't be taken for granted.
The FA Cup and the games against the Big Four aside, Everton did very well last season and in Europe they excelled at times. The dramatic evening against Fiorentina was a magnificent effort that deserved better than a penalty exit after a two-goal deficit had been overturned. But it looks like a high-water mark for the Blue tide.
That said, Everton have been handed a favourable start to the season - their first three away games are against the three promoted sides, while the first home match is against much-changed Blackburn. But from late September, three out of four fixtures are against Big Four opposition and as the squad stands it will be a surprise if they can come through those games well - and if they don't then their challenge to the elite will look to have failed almost before the clocks have changed.
Philip Cornwall