Odds on championship: 4-1. Odds on relegation: 330-1.
Manager: Arsene Wenger (since September 1996). Odds on first out the job: 40-1
Last season: 3rd, 83 points; Champions League quarter-finals; FA Cup fifth round; Carling Cup semi-finals
Ins: Aaron Ramsey (Cardiff, £5m), Samir Nasri (Marseille, £11m), Amaury Bischoff (Werder Bremen, undisclosed).
Outs: Mathieu Flamini (AC Milan, free), Alexander Hleb (Barcelona, £11.8m), Jens Lehmann (Stuttgart, free), Gilberto Silva (Panathinaikos, £1m), Kerrea Gilbert (Leicester, loan).
Last season Arsenal exceeded expectations. Those of us who had predicted they would struggle after the departure of Thierry Henry reckoned without quite how brilliant Cesc Fabregas would be, without the surge in form by Emmanuel Adebayor and without the gradual impact of Eduardo. Had the Croat not suffered that horrific injury; had Arsene Wenger not bafflingly handed Manchester United the intiative when the teams met in the FA Cup; had Adebayor kept scoring; then who knows what might have been achieved, against the odds?
That Arsenal flew quite so high was a surprise. That they finished empty-handed was less of one, as trophy-winning has been a problem since the 2005 FA Cup final.
Last season was not the Gunners' first tale of the unexpected. Take 2005-06, as they slumped from second to barely scraping fourth, while reaching the Champions League final. It's practically a habit now, for Arsenal to do better or worse than expected.
So it is with certain misgivings that I predict Arsene Wenger's team will slip back this season.
Between them, Mathieu Flamini and Alexander Hleb played 61 times last season in the Premier League, with 59 starts. Neither is irreplaceable, but to lose both was undesirable.
Adebayor is staying, but his summer antics will have impressed few and it was noticeable last season that as soon as Fleet Street collectively decided that he was, after all, up to the job, he started to have problems in front of goal.
Samir Nasri is the biggest acquisition and will surely prove worth the £11m fee in the long run, but at 20 years of age probably not immediately. Aaron Ramsey, too, looks a fine signing, but another who needs time.
Theo Walcott has benefited from time and had the defence kept their heads then last season's Champions League quarter-final at Anfield would have been remembered as the game he arrived. He also had a starring role in the ill-fated match at Birmingham - so his luck is certainly due to change, even if he came off better from that match than Eduardo.
The Croat will return from injury. So too Tomas Rosicky. If Robin van Persie can stay out of the treatment room, Nicklas Bendtner can continue his improvement, Nasri settles in quickly and Walcott thrives in the No 14 shirt, then Fabregas will have a host of options for his killer passes.
Jens Lehmann's tantrums have been taken elsewhere. Bacary Sagna was an eye-catching signing for more than his hair. Gael Clichy deserves even more praise than he gets.
But there's a sense of transition at the Emirates - almost permanent transition, given the comparative financial weakness. The move to the new ground was necessary, but Chelsea and Manchester United remain some distance ahead and suffer little of the wage-structure problems that hamper Wenger. The reasons to stay include a great manager who is not about to retire and who loves fine football, but the reasons to leave include cold, hard cash, which some will always choose.
Last season Arsenal got off to a flying start in terms of results (they stumbled a bit on their way to acquiring them, for instance against Fulham). The good news is that the fixtures are there for a similarly bright early autumn: of their first seven opponents, only Blackburn came in the top 10 last season.
The style is there, as always. But doubt lingers about the steel and about the manager's temperament in the face of setbacks, which will surely come. Because he will not compromise, of the top four, Arsenal are the greatest adornment to the Premier League, the team you can most happily sit back and watch for pleasure. But for the same reason they are also the most likely to find themselves in fourth, for the third time in four years, next May, and with a very tricky Champions League qualifier to negotiate next August.
Philip Cornwall