Odds on championship: 13-8. Odds on relegation: 420-1.
Manager: Luiz Felipe Scolari (since July). Odds on first out the job: 25-1
Last season: 2nd, 85 points; Champions League runners-up; FA Cup quarter-finals; Carling Cup finalists
Ins: Jose Bosingwa (FC Porto, £16.2m), Deco (Barcelona, £8m).
Outs: Steve Sidwell (Aston Villa, £5m), Ben Sahar (Portsmouth, loan), Ryan Bertrand (Norwich, loan), Slobodan Rajkovic (FC Twente, loan), Claude Makelele (Paris St Germain, free), Khalid Boulahrouz (Stuttgart, £4m), Tal Ben Haim (Manchester City, undisclosed).
When Jose Mourinho was appointed Chelsea manager in 2004, some pundits - such as Ian Ridley, now of the Mail on Sunday - argued that it was too much to expect of him to win the title in his first season, a very rare event indeed. The then Observer writer was proved wrong over the next nine months as Chelsea romped to a first championship in 50 years.
What Ridley failed to account for, perhaps, was that the previous season under Claudio Ranieri, Chelsea had finished second and reached the Champions League semi-finals but had plainly underachieved. It wasn't just Peter Kenyon who thought so, charmless as his disposal of the Italian undoubtedly was. Then further spending had enhanced a team that were already good enough to win the major silverware.
Now, with Luiz Felipe Scolari, the challenge is on for another manager to try to win the title in his first season. I hesitate to follow in the footsteps of Ridley lest I start lacing my columns with the words 'Tony Adams', but I think the former Brazil and Portugal coach will struggle to emulate Mourinho - because last season Chelsea overachieved.
Under latter-days Mourinho, Chelsea did grind out results, it's true, with less flair than in his first season. But even if some of the scorelines were close, they frequently strangled opponents. In plenty of Avram Grant's victories, I was reminded of the late Ron Greenwood's comment about the 1966 World Cup final: every time he watched it again, he kept expecting West Germany to win. I re-watched the highlights of Chelsea's 1-0 home win against Middlesbrough, for instance, and I just could not believe that Gareth Southgate's side came away empty-handed.
After beating Derby 6-1 on 12 March, in their remaining ten league games only twice did the Blues win by more than one goal. United won by more than one goal five times in their last ten league games. Chelsea struggled towards the line until lifting themselves for the head-to-head against United, but the better team won the title. And until their steep but brief decline, weren't Arsenal better, too?
Chelsea's later European successes were narrow, too: they were one goal from extra-time against Fenerbahce; extra time was needed against Liverpool, who ran out of luck but also came up against a wave of emotion.
This was all under a manager who was not up to the job. That, everyone concludes, has changed, but Scolari has been a long time out of club football.
Frank Lampard has signed a new deal. Didier Drogba has not moved on despite the determined protestations by 'friends' that he would honour his words of the autumn, and should play more than in a season in which injury and the African Nations Cup limited appearances.
Deco is a classy acquisition from Barcelona; Jose Bosingwa is a fine full-back; Chelsea reportedly remain confident that Robinho will arrive.
Still, as Pete Gill concludes in his analysis of Chelsea's squad, Scolari still has a lot of work to do. Mourinho inherited a squad fit to win the league; his successor-but-one has not.
He has a reasonable introduction to the Premier League, with home games against Portsmouth and Spurs this month, and a trip to Wigan in between. But in September two games against the Manchester clubs - at City, then home to United - will provide a stiffer test. One that Scolari may pass - but if he doesn't, he will be three months away from being able to sign reinforcements.
Philip Cornwall